{"id":26382,"date":"2026-01-14T11:31:43","date_gmt":"2026-01-14T15:31:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/2026\/milho\/nova-tecnologia-acelera-diagnostico-de-prejuizos-da-geada-no-milho\/"},"modified":"2026-01-14T11:31:43","modified_gmt":"2026-01-14T15:31:43","slug":"nova-tecnologia-acelera-diagnostico-de-prejuizos-da-geada-no-milho","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/en\/2026\/milho\/nova-tecnologia-acelera-diagnostico-de-prejuizos-da-geada-no-milho\/","title":{"rendered":"New technology speeds up diagnosis of frost damage in corn."},"content":{"rendered":"

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A research project by Unesp, in partnership with the National Institute for Space Research (INPE), the National Supply Company (Conab), and the University of Michigan, has developed a method that combines data obtained through remote sensing and mathematical models to quickly, automatically, and accurately detect frost damage in corn crops, as well as estimate the area occupied by the crop.<\/p>\n

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Photo: Courtesy of Unesp<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

According to researchers, the tool can provide agility to public authorities in correcting crop volume before harvest, contributing, for example, to monitoring the supply and price of grain. It also has the potential to assist the work of companies in the rural insurance sector and guide producers' decision-making after frosts occur.<\/p>\n

Second-crop corn is a Brazilian differentiator.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Frosts often cause considerable damage to crops, especially when they affect the so-called second crop, whose planting season can extend into the colder months of the year, such as May or June. Previously, this second crop period, popularly referred to as the "safrinha," represented a marginal percentage of Brazilian agricultural production. However, this role has changed significantly in the last two decades. Innovations such as the development of new technologies and inputs, the use of cultivars more resistant to extreme temperatures, and the adoption of management practices that benefit soil quality have allowed Brazilian tropical agriculture to considerably increase field production after the main crop, which occurs during the summer.<\/p>\n

Data published by the MapBiomas project.<\/a>Data from December 10th shows that the area planted 'out of season' has tripled in size.<\/p>\n

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Photo: Disclosure\/OPR Archive<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Since 2000, it has focused primarily on corn cultivation, which accounted for 62.21% of the second-crop volume in 2024. The MapBiomas survey also showed that Paran\u00e1 was the second largest producer of second-crop corn in the country, most often planted after soybeans.<\/p>\n

And it was precisely in the southern state, more specifically in the western region of Paran\u00e1, that the researchers tested the new method.<\/p>\n

since the region is frequently impacted by frost. The results were presented in the form of a article published in\u00a0Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment<\/em>\u00a0<\/a>And, according to the authors, it was the first in the literature to map the impact of frost on corn cultivation based on remote sensing data.<\/p>\n

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The method developed by the researchers found that the total area of second-crop corn planted in that mesoregion during the second crop season reached 740,007 ha. This estimate is 1.7% higher than the total recorded in the official data. This difference is a testament to the high precision of the new tool as an alternative way to estimate the planting area.<\/p>\n

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Photo: Courtesy of Pexels<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

The researchers used data from the 2020\/2021 harvest as a reference for the study. In that season, the western region of Paran\u00e1 was affected by two frost episodes (in May and June) that severely impacted corn crops. At the beginning of that year's harvest, a longer-than-normal drought period forced producers to delay the planting of the first soybean crop, which delayed the harvest and, consequently, pushed the planting of the second corn crop to mid-February, leading to the harvest at the beginning of winter, a colder period.<\/p>\n

Using the new method, researchers estimated that frosts affected the equivalent of 69.6%** of the total planted corn area, with 3.5% being affected in the first episode in May, and 66.1% during the second, more intense frost occurrence in June. According to the analysis, 30.4% of the planted corn area was not affected. Of this total, harvesting had already occurred in 13.8%, and the remaining 16.7% were not impacted by the frosts.<\/p>\n

When official data was used to compare the damage caused by frost, the analysis proved more complex. The harvest quality assessment report, released by the Department of Rural Economy (Deral) of the Paran\u00e1 State Secretariat of Agriculture and Supply, is a possible official reference. According to the data in this report, of the total corn harvested during the second crop season...,<\/strong>\u00a058.7% were classified as being of poor quality, and 35.3% as being of average quality.<\/p>\n

The agency's data, however, refers to the total harvest. It turns out that, although frosts were the most critical factor in the damage to the crop...<\/p>\n

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Photo: Disclosure\/OPR Archive<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

During that period, episodes of drought were also observed in the agricultural sector.<\/p>\n

The researchers then sought data from agricultural insurance companies that had recorded, through verifications...\u00a0on-site<\/em>\u00a0Regarding crop damage, losses specifically resulted from frost. When compared to insurance company data, the researchers' estimates showed a 75% agreement with respect to the most intense frost event, which occurred in June.<\/p>\n

The goal is to observe the effects and problems during the harvest.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cOur goal is to be able to map crops and identify problems even during the harvest period,\u201d explains Michel Eust\u00e1quio Dantas Chaves, a professor at Unesp in the Biosystems Engineering course and affiliated with the Postgraduate Program in Agribusiness and Development (PGAD) at the Faculty of Sciences and Engineering, Tup\u00e3 campus. \u201cThis will allow us to collaborate with planning agencies and help producers make decisions before harvest,\u201d says Chaves, who is the first author of the article.<\/p>\n

He mentions, for example, the number of crop information updates that Conab releases throughout the year, an indication that there is room to improve the accuracy of these estimates. \u201cIf we can reduce the uncertainties in 1%,<\/strong>\u00a0That would already be a useful contribution to society. After all...,<\/strong>\u00a0Agriculture plays a very important role, both for the trade balance and for the domestic trade of agricultural products,\u201d comments the researcher.<\/p>\n

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Photo: Disclosure<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Currently, methods for calculating frost damage require field visits to conduct sample surveys. This methodology demands more time and investment and leaves room for subjectivity in observations. Chaves explains that field presence will continue to be fundamental, since the process of training algorithms to develop models and validating information obtained from satellite images requires on-site verification of crop conditions.<\/p>\n

The tool combines images captured by the Sentinel-2 satellite with a machine learning algorithm called Random Forest. Chaves explains that the images from the European satellite have an average resolution, between 10 and 20 meters per pixel, which makes them more appropriate for agricultural regions where smaller properties predominate. \u201cIn addition to the advantages in terms of precision, there is the issue of time. Sentinel-2 has a repeatability of 5 days. This is very useful because, even if impacts caused by frost, drought, or fire occur, it is possible to observe these effects within a short enough period of time to allow producers and public authorities to make data-driven decisions,\u201d he explains.<\/p>\n

Study showed cause of damage<\/strong><\/p>\n

The study selected satellite images obtained between February 1st and July 31st. The professor from Unesp explains that, through the analysis of the spectral reflection of these images, it is possible to verify a series of parameters of the crops, such as the species that were planted, their stage of development, and even more sensitive information, such as soil moisture or the plant's ability to perform photosynthesis.<\/p>\n

The model developed by the researchers considered, in addition to climatological data and planting area, three vegetation indices.<\/p>\n

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Photo: Disclosure<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

different factors, a novelty proposed by the article, increased the precision in identifying the damage recorded in the crop. "This combination of indices ensures that the damage we identified was caused by a thermal adversity, and not by a pest or inadequate crop management," Chaves points out.<\/p>\n

Chaves, coordinator of the Geoprocessing and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory at the Tup\u00e3 campus and collaborator of the Agricultural Remote Sensing Laboratory at INPE, says that the methodology for evaluating the impact of frosts can be expanded to other crops that may be affected by the phenomenon. Some possibilities are wheat, rye, and oat crops, which are produced during the winter, as well as in other regions of the country.<\/p>\n

Another possible area of focus involves integrating meteorological models, whose images have lower resolution, with land use data, which has higher resolution. "I see that this is already underway. The incorporation of this technology will guide the future of remote sensing focused on agriculture and the prevention of disasters caused by meteorological events," he emphasizes.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

THE MM Cereais<\/strong> works with the best grains on the market and also keeps you up to date with the latest news and analyses on agribusiness.
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