The trade war between the United States and China has profoundly altered the global flow of soybeans in 2025, favoring Brazilian and Argentinian producers. According to a survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation, the largest representative entity of the US agricultural sector, Chinese imports of American soybeans have plummeted to their lowest historical level this year.<\/p>\n
Between January and August, China purchased only 5.8 million tons of American soybeans, compared to 26.5 million tons in the same period of 2024, a drop of almost 801 TP4T. From June to August, the Asian country practically did not acquire any tons of the North American grain, including the new crop.<\/p>\n
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Conversely, Brazil became China's main supplier, exporting over 77 million tons during the same period. Argentina also increased its sales after temporarily suspending the export tax, reinstating the tax only when sales exceeded US$7 billion.<\/p>\n
According to the American federation, the decline is not an isolated event, but a consequence of the supplier diversification policy adopted by China since 2018, during the Donald Trump administration. This strategy resulted in a drop in US exports of corn, wheat, and sorghum to zero, as well as a reduction in sales of pork and cotton.<\/p>\n
The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects that the total value of agricultural exports to China will fall by 30% compared to 2024, to US$17 billion, and is expected to reach US$9 billion in 2026, the lowest level since 2018.<\/p>\n
To mitigate the impacts, the Trump administration is preparing a new financial aid package for rural producers, similar to the one granted in 2019, when more than US$22 billion was allocated to the sector. In addition to the trade war, American farmers are facing falling commodity prices and increased logistical costs, aggravated by the low level of the Mississippi River, which is expected to reduce the country's agricultural income by 2.5 billion in 2025, the lowest value since 2007.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n