{"id":25679,"date":"2025-09-19T08:04:39","date_gmt":"2025-09-19T12:04:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/2025\/exportacoes\/exportacoes-brasileiras-de-carnes-registram-alta-em-2025-e-suina-deve-bater-novo-recorde-em-setembro\/"},"modified":"2025-09-19T08:04:39","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T12:04:39","slug":"exportacoes-brasileiras-de-carnes-registram-alta-em-2025-e-suina-deve-bater-novo-recorde-em-setembro","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/en\/2025\/exportacoes\/exportacoes-brasileiras-de-carnes-registram-alta-em-2025-e-suina-deve-bater-novo-recorde-em-setembro\/","title":{"rendered":"Brazilian meat exports are expected to increase in 2025, and pork exports should hit a new record in September."},"content":{"rendered":"

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As exporta\u00e7\u00f5es brasileiras de carne su\u00edna\u00a0in nature<\/em>\u00a0vinham, at\u00e9 junho\/25, m\u00eas a m\u00eas, superando significativamente os embarques, quando comparadas com o mesmo per\u00edodo de 2024. Em julho\/25, pela primeira v\u00eas no ano, houve uma retra\u00e7\u00e3o em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao ano passado, que n\u00e3o se sustentou em agosto (tabela 1). Apesar deste recuo, no acumulado do ano (de janeiro a agosto\/25) s\u00e3o quase 13% (96,7 mil toneladas) a mais do que 2024. Na parcial de setembro\/25, com dados de embarque at\u00e9 dia 12, j\u00e1 foram exportadas 63,4 mil toneladas de carne su\u00edna brasileira\u00a0in nature<\/em>, um aumento de 23,6% no volume di\u00e1rio quando comparado com setembro de 2024, indicando que, muito provavelmente, este m\u00eas se atinja novo recorde mensal de exporta\u00e7\u00f5es, se aproximando de 130 mil toneladas.<\/p>\n

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Table 1. Export volumes of fresh Brazilian pork (in tons), month by month, in 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 and from January to August 2025. Prepared by Iuri P. Machado, with data from Secex.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

The Philippines continue to lead our exports, and China, although still occupying second place in the year-to-date figures (Table 2), has been significantly decreasing its purchases, with China and Hong Kong combined accounting for less than half the volume shipped to the Philippines in August 2025 (Table 3).<\/p>\n

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Table 2. Main destinations of Brazilian fresh pork exports in January and August 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, with value in US dollars (FOB). Order of countries established based on 2025 volumes. Prepared by Iuri P. Machado, with data from Secex.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

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Table 3. Brazilian exports of fresh pork by destination in AUGUST 2025 (in tons and in US$) compared to August 2024. Prepared by Iuri P. Machado, with data from Secex.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

Conforme demonstra a\u00a0tabela 4, a seguir, o crescimento das exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de carne brasileira em 2025 n\u00e3o se restringe a prote\u00edna su\u00edna. A\u00a0carne bovina\u00a0vem superando com sobras os volumes do ano passado, sendo que agosto\/25, apesar do \u201ctarifa\u00e7o\u201d dos Estado Unidos, foi o segundo melhor m\u00eas em volume exportado da hist\u00f3ria, com mais de 268 mil toneladas\u00a0in nature<\/em>\u00a0embarcadas, mesmo com o baixo volume importado pelos EUA (pouco mais de 6 mil toneladas), um recuo de mais de 50% em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao m\u00eas anterior.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, Brazilian poultry farming, which had experienced significant growth in exports in the first four months of the year compared to the same period in 2024, saw a significant reduction in shipments between May and July due to the outbreak of avian influenza in Rio Grande do Sul, reported in the first half of May. However, throughout July and August, importing countries gradually lifted their restrictions on purchases of Brazilian chicken meat. Among the countries that lifted their restrictions are: the United Arab Emirates, South Africa, the Philippines, Mexico, South Korea, and, more recently, the European Union. According to Mbagro, approximately 131% of the monthly volume that Brazil would export under normal circumstances is still suspended, such as exports to China, which represented 121% of the Brazilian chicken meat export market. Despite this drop in chicken exports, the three meats combined accumulated an increase of just over 5% (280,000 tons) between January and August 2025, compared to the same period last year.<\/p>\n

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Tabela 4.\u00a0Exporta\u00e7\u00f5es brasileiras de carnes bovina, de frango, su\u00edna e somat\u00f3rio das tr\u00eas,\u00a0in natura, em toneladas, de janeiro a agosto de 2025, comparado com o mesmo per\u00edodo de 2024 e com o per\u00edodo anterior.\u00a0Destaque (em amarelo) para as quedas nos volumes de frango de maio a julho\/25, devido ao foco de Influenza avi\u00e1ria no RS e para o incremento do total somado das tr\u00eas carnes, com crescimento de 5,04% em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao mesmo per\u00edodo do ano passado e de 10,58% em rela\u00e7\u00e3o aos sete meses anteriores. Elaborado por Iuri P. Machado, com dados da Secex.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

Analyzing these export data for the three proteins and considering domestic availability, the reduction in chicken shipments was more than offset by the increase in beef and pork exports. In this context, with the gradual recovery of normal poultry meat shipment volumes in August, which continues in the first half of September (up to the 12th), the prices of chilled chicken carcasses, which plummeted in June 2025 in the S\u00e3o Paulo wholesale market (graph 1), show a significant recovery in September, especially in recent days (graph 2), following the reopening of the European Union.<\/p>\n

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Chart 1. Average monthly price of chilled chicken in S\u00e3o Paulo (SP), in R$\/kg of carcass, over the last 12 months. Average from September to September 16, 2025. Source: CEPEA<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

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Chart 2. Daily price of chilled chicken in S\u00e3o Paulo (SP), in R$\/kg of carcass, over the last 30 working days, up to 09\/16\/2025. Source: CEPEA<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

Beef exports, which have surpassed last year's export volumes by almost 15%, also saw growth in slaughtering after experiencing a drop in carcass prices in July. Prices rose again in August and maintain an upward trend in September, after overcoming the threat of the "tariff hike" (graph 3). It is noteworthy that IBGE, in publishing the definitive slaughter data for the second quarter of 2025, showed that during this period, for the first time in the historical series, the slaughter of females exceeded that of males. Everything indicates that a cycle change is approaching, with a gradual reduction in the supply of cattle for slaughter and strong demand in domestic and international markets, which should keep prices firm for the remainder of the year.<\/p>\n

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As shown in graphs 4 and 5 below, pork prices (live and carcass) also fell in June and July, but recovered in August and September, showing that the market dynamics for pork going forward should be based predominantly on supply and demand, with the chicken and beef chains, which, as we saw earlier, are on an upward trend, helping to keep pork competitive, even with high prices.<\/p>\n

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Gr\u00e1fico 4. Indicador CARCA\u00c7A SU\u00cdNA ESPECIAL \u2013 CEPEA\/ESALQ (R$\/kg) em S\u00e3o Paulo\/SP, mensal, nos \u00faltimos 12 meses. M\u00e9dia de setembro\/25 at\u00e9 dia 16\/09\/2025. Fonte: CEPEA<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

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Chart 5. Live Pig Indicator \u2013 CEPEA\/ESALQ (R$\/kg) in MG, PR, RS, SC and SP, daily, over the last 12 months. Prices shown in the chart refer to the month of September\/25, up to 16\/09. Source: CEPEA<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

IBGE released the final slaughter figures for the second quarter of 2025 and slaughter data by state for the first half of the year, highlighting the increase in Paran\u00e1, Rio Grande do Sul and Minas Gerais, when compared to the same period last year (table 5).<\/p>\n

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Table 5. Pig slaughter in the first HALF of 2025 by federative unit, compared to the same period last year. Highlighting the increase in Paran\u00e1, Rio Grande do Sul, and Minas Gerais (blue). Ranking established based on carcass tonnage in 2025. Prepared by Iuri P Machado using definitive data from IBGE.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

With the start of planting for the Brazilian summer crop and the harvest of the American crop, expectations of a good supply of inputs remain.<\/p>\n

Conab released the latest revision of the 2024\/2025 crop forecast, adding almost 3 million tons of corn compared to the previous survey, totaling 139.7 million tons across the three national crops for the 2024\/25 period. It's worth noting that the second crop (safrinha) has practically already been harvested, and planting of the summer crop (2025\/26) of corn and soybeans has already begun in Brazil.<\/p>\n

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), in a report published on the 12th, raised its estimates for soybean and corn production in the country, whose harvest begins in the coming weeks. The USDA estimated the soybean crop at 117.07 million tons, compared to the 116.82 million tons projected the previous month. For corn, the USDA increased its projection from 425.25 million to an impressive 427.08 million tons.<\/p>\n

Even with a good supply in Brazil and expectations of a record North American harvest, corn prices in the domestic market have been rising gradually and consistently in recent weeks (graph 6), indicating that the lowest prices are behind us.<\/p>\n

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Chart 6. Average daily price of CORN (R$\/SC 60kg) in CAMPINAS-SP, over the last 30 working days, up to September 17, 2025. Source: Cepea<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

Soybean meal also experienced a slight increase in most Brazilian markets. As pork prices saw consistent gains, even with the rise in key input costs, the terms of trade remain quite favorable (Figure 7).<\/p>\n

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Gr\u00e1fico 7. Rela\u00e7\u00e3o de troca SU\u00cdNO : MIX milho + farelo de soja (R$\/kg) em S\u00e3o Paulo, de agosto\/23 a agosto\/25. Rela\u00e7\u00e3o de troca ideal, acima de 5,00 Composi\u00e7\u00e3o do MIX: para cada quilograma de MIX, 740g de milho e 260g de farelo de soja. Elaborado por Iuri P. Machado com dados do CEPEA \u2013 pre\u00e7os estado de S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

Final considerations<\/p>\n

The president of ABCS, Marcelo Lopes, explains that the chicken export market is gradually returning to pre-avian influenza levels in Rio Grande do Sul, contributing to the recovery of prices for this meat. "This, coupled with successive monthly records in beef and pork exports, keeps Brazilian animal proteins looking promising, especially as the end of the year approaches with the traditional increase in seasonal demand." He concludes by saying that the relative stability in the supply and prices of key inputs leaves the swine sector optimistic for the coming months.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

THE MM Cereais<\/strong> works with the best grains on the market and also keeps you up to date with the latest news and analyses on agribusiness.
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As exporta\u00e7\u00f5es brasileiras de carne su\u00edna\u00a0in natura\u00a0vinham, at\u00e9 junho\/25, m\u00eas a m\u00eas, superando significativamente os…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":25680,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-25679","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-exportacoes"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25679","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25679"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25679\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25680"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25679"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25679"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmcereais.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25679"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}