Wheat harvest may fall by 37% and quality is a concern in RS

The harvest of wheat Harvesting is progressing in southern Brazil, but is facing problems with grain quality and expectations of lower production. According to TF Agroeconômica, data from Emater/RS-Ascar shows that in Rio Grande do Sul, 19% of the area has already been harvested, with damaged, shriveled grains and a reduction in hectoliter weight (HLW).

Excessive humidity, low solar radiation, and diseases such as Fusarium head blight and blast damaged crops. Storms also caused localized losses. Despite satisfactory yields in some areas, quality fell short of expectations in parts of the state.

The Rio Grande do Sul state's production is estimated at 2.16 million tons, a decrease of 37.481 TP4T compared to 2025. The cultivated area shrank by 34.561 TP4T, to 763,100 hectares. The projected productivity is 2,833 kilograms per hectare, 5.551 TP4T lower than last season's harvest.

In the market, new wheat trading increased compared to the previous two weeks, but remains weak. Negotiations are occurring near R$ 1,400 per ton FOB, while some mills indicate R$ 1,350. In Panambi, the over-the-counter price fell R$ 2, to R$ 73 per sack. Argentine wheat was quoted at US$ 320 per ton in Porto Alegre.

In Santa Catarina, the scarcity of quality grains is hindering the supply to mills, which are seeking import alternatives. Epagri forecasts production of 243,000 tons, a decrease of 37% compared to the previous season. A local industry reported an increase of 11.5% in the price of flour.

In Paraná, the presence of sprouted wheat in the field makes it difficult to find higher-quality lots. Type 1 wheat is quoted at R$ 1,650 per ton, while Type 3 appears at R$ 1,300, in a market that continues to trade cautiously.