Imea: Growth in Mato Grosso's poultry industry expands opportunities, but does not meet all external demand after vetoes in Santa Catarina.

Despite Mato Grosso having registered growth in chicken exports of more than 24%, between January and September, the state would not be able to fully absorb, immediately, the international demand for chicken meat in a possible redirection from Santa Catarina. The assessment is from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea), which analyzed this Thursday (22) the differences between the export volumes of the two states, after trade restrictions announced by importing countries due to the Newcastle disease outbreak.

According to data compiled by the institute, based on information from the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex), during the first half of 2026, Mato Grosso produced 224,000 tons of poultry meat and exported 56,000 tons, equivalent to 25% of the state's production during that period.

Santa Catarina has already shipped more than 646,000 tons to the foreign market. Of this total, 121,000 tons were destined for Chile, Hong Kong, China, and Mexico, markets that have applied restrictions to poultry products originating from the state of Santa Catarina.

According to Felipe Andrade, who monitors the dairy, poultry, and swine sectors at Imea, the difference in scale helps explain why Mato Grosso would not be able to fully replace shipments from Santa Catarina.

To meet additional demand of this magnitude, it would be necessary to direct a larger portion of the state's production to the international market, which would also depend on product availability and the operational conditions of the agro-industries. "Today, about 251% of what we produce is sent to the foreign market, so it wouldn't be feasible to fully replace the volumes produced in Santa Catarina in the short term," he explains.

Imea emphasizes that Mato Grosso's production serves both the domestic and international markets. Therefore, maintaining a production volume similar to that of the first half of the year does not mean there will be a sufficient surplus to meet all the demand that may be redirected from Santa Catarina.

"The possibility of expanding shipments also depends on the processing and logistics capacity of the companies, commercial contracts, and sanitary authorizations required by importing countries," Felipe points out.

Which countries have already announced trade restrictions?

The measures announced by importers after the confirmation of the Newcastle outbreak in Santa Catarina vary according to the country and the scope of the restriction. China, Chile and Saudi Arabia limited the measures to products from the state of Santa Catarina as of Wednesday (21). The scenario occurs at a time of growth in Mato Grosso exports: from January to September 2026, the state shipped 90,120 tons of chicken meat, an increase of 24,42% compared to the same period last year.

Saudi Arabia was the main destination for chicken meat from Mato Grosso in the first nine months of the year, with 27,340 tons. Hong Kong and China followed, considered together, with 10,770 tons, and the United Arab Emirates, also with 10,370 tons.

In the case of Mexico, which announced the suspension of imports of all Brazilian poultry products, the direct impact on sales from Mato Grosso is likely to be smaller. The country accounted for 1.59% of the state's exports between January and September, with 1,437 tons shipped.

But what about the risks of the disease?

Newcastle disease is a highly contagious viral infection that affects poultry and can cause respiratory and neurological symptoms, decreased egg production, and mortality. The disease does not pose a significant risk to human health.

According to Marcos Carvalho, technical advisor for Livestock at the Federation of Agriculture and Livestock of Mato Grosso (Famato), continuous monitoring is essential to preserve the health of herds and avoid losses to the activity.

“Although Mato Grosso has no recent records of the disease, vigilance needs to be continuous. It is essential that producers maintain biosecurity measures, observe the health of the birds, and immediately report any suspicious signs to Indea,” he advises.

The Mato Grosso Agricultural Defense Institute (Indea-MT) reported on Wednesday that samples were collected from 84 commercial farms in the state this year, but all tested negative for Newcastle disease.

In cases of abnormal mortality or respiratory and neurological symptoms in birds, the recommendation is to immediately notify the official veterinary service for investigation.