Soybean prices hit their lowest level in Chicago since August.

The prospect of a large harvest of soy The situation in the United States is putting pressure on international oilseed prices. On Thursday, October 15, the first contract traded on the Chicago Board of Trade closed at US$ 12.63 per bushel, the lowest value recorded since August 27.

The decline gained momentum after the release of the supply and demand report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). According to an analysis by CEEMA, the numbers confirmed high US production and larger inventories than previously estimated.

The U.S. crop is projected at 124.2 million tons, almost a million tons above the September forecast. The country's ending stocks have also been revised upward, reaching 8.57 million tons in the 2026/27 season.

Globally, soybean production is projected to reach 442.7 million tons, while ending stocks are estimated at 124.3 million tons. Both projections represent an increase compared to the previous survey, boosting expectations for the availability of the oilseed in the international market.

The North American harvest also progressed. As of October 11, 461 TP4T of the cultivated area had been harvested, compared to 251 TP4T the previous week. Despite the recovery, the percentage was still below the historical average of 501 TP4T for the period.

The progress of the work shows differences between producing regions. In Iowa, only 311 TP4T of the area had been harvested, compared to an average of 591 TP4T. Illinois, the largest soybean-producing state in the country, recorded 481 TP4T of the harvest completed, above the historical average of 461 TP4T.

The USDA also reported that 57% of the remaining crops were in good or excellent condition. Another 29% were in fair condition, and 14% were classified as poor to very poor.

In foreign trade, China has once again stirred the market with new purchases of US soybeans. Chinese state-owned companies have acquired between eight and ten Panamax ships, with shipments scheduled to begin in December. Each vessel has an approximate capacity of 65,000 tons.

These transactions add to China's purchases of approximately 13.7 million tons of soybeans from the United States, more than half of its target of 25 million tons for the 2026/27 marketing year.

In South America, Argentina also shows growth expectations. The country's soybean production is projected at 52.5 million tons, an increase of 41% compared to the previous season. Part of this expansion could occur with the transfer of corn acreage to soybeans in regions where the risk of leafhopper infestation influences producers' planning.

With larger inventories, the progress of the North American harvest, and new Chinese purchases, the international soybean market is experiencing significant movements in both supply and demand. Confirmation of production projections and the pace of Chinese acquisitions should continue to influence soybean prices.