Productivity becomes a warning sign for the next soybean harvest.

The Brazilian harvest of soy The 2026/27 season is likely to depend more on productivity than on the expansion of planted area. According to Antonio Prado GB Neto, an agribusiness consultant, projections from six consulting firms indicate an average area close to 49.14 million hectares, an increase of only 0.61 TP4T compared to 2025/26.

Maintaining the average productivity of 3,712 kilograms per hectare recorded in the previous season, production would reach approximately 182.7 million tons, below the 186 million tons estimated by the USDA. In the simulations presented by the consultant, a reduction to 3,652 kilograms per hectare would lead to a harvest of 179.75 million tons. With a yield of 3,592 kilograms, the volume would fall to 176.81 million tons, while a scenario of 3,352 kilograms would result in approximately 165 million tons.

“But there is a clear message: a sharp drop in Brazilian productivity would remove millions of tons from the global balance and create an environment of tighter inventories and greater price sensitivity to any new supply problem. In a scenario close to 23% of stock/consumption, the market would operate with much less margin for climatic errors,” he comments.

In addition to the climate, the analysis draws attention to tighter credit and high input costs, factors that could limit investments in fertilizers, soil correction, lime, and technology. Since Brazil represents approximately 42% of the world's projected production according to the USDA, sharper productivity losses could also reduce the ratio between global stocks and consumption, increasing price sensitivity to new supply problems.

"With the area practically stabilized, climate, credit, soil fertility, limestone, fertilizers, and technology can define not only the size of the Brazilian harvest, but the global balance of soybean production," he concludes.