Brazil brings forward soybean planting and expands acreage for the 2025/26 crop season.

The August report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) brought relevant adjustments to the global soybean market. Despite revising the US yield from 3.5 to 3.6 tons per acre, the agency reduced its estimate of harvested area to 32.4 million hectares—a decrease of 2.91 tons per acre compared to the previous month. As a result, total production was recalculated at 116.8 million tons, compared to 118 million in July.

Exports also suffered a cut, falling to 46.4 million tons. Even so, ending stocks decreased from 8.4 to 7.9 million tons, indicating a tighter balance for American soybeans. Meanwhile, Pro Farmer — a consultancy that conducts an independent crop tour — estimated lower productivity than the USDA, at 3.55 t/ha. If confirmed, production would reach 115.6 million tons, below the current official projection.

Planting in Brazil advances after sanitary break.

Photo: Marcos Carolino de Sá

In Brazil, the end of the sanitary break already allows the resumption of planting. In Paraná, regions in the North, Northwest, Central-West and West have been cleared since August 31, while the South, East, Campos Gerais, Coastal and Southwest regions will have the restriction lifted between September 11 and 20. According to the Department of Rural Economy (Deral), the soybean area in the state should reach 5.8 million hectares in 2025/26, an increase of 0.6% compared to the previous harvest.

In Mato Grosso, the release occurred on September 6th. Data from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (IMEA) indicate that the state should expand the planted area by 1.7%, reaching 13.1 million hectares. The climate tends to favor the advance: after a drier start to September, forecasts indicate more consistent rainfall in the second half of the month, a condition that could bring forward the sowing compared to 2024.

Low inventories keep prices firm.

According to an analysis by Itaú BBA Agro, the combination of tighter inventories in the United States and the prospect of increased acreage in Brazil tends to support firm prices in the short term. The institution highlights that, even with the expansion of Brazilian production, the market should remain sensitive to the weather conditions of the South American harvest, especially in the coming months.