Fresh pork continues to break export records

Brazil continues to break records for pork exports in the first quarter of 2025, with more than 18% growth in fresh shipments compared to the same period last year (table 1), totaling more than 290 thousand tons in these first three months.

Table 1 – Exported volumes of Brazilian fresh pork (in tons), month by month, in 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 and from January to March 2025. Prepared by Iuri P. Machado, with data from Secex.

It is noteworthy that China, which once represented more than 50% of our exports, and which has been reducing imported volumes (graph 1), in March 2025, purchased just over 12 thousand tons of fresh pork, almost half the volume purchased by the now leader, the Philippines (table 2).

In terms of revenue, China ranked fifth in March, also being surpassed by Hong Kong and Japan; the latter ranked second in terms of export revenue for the month (table 2). Regarding China, this volume in March 2025 was the lowest shipped in a single month since February 2019, when 11.9 thousand tons were exported. In other words, the volumes exported by Brazil to China are returning to the level they were before the high demand resulting from the direct impacts of the outbreak of African Swine Fever in the Asian giant.

Chart 1 – Evolution of monthly volumes of Brazilian pork exported to China from Jan/24 to Mar/25 (in tons). Prepared by Iuri P. Machado with data from Secex

Table 2 – Main destinations of Brazilian fresh pork exported in March 2025, with value in dollars (FOB). Prepared by Iuri P. Machado, with data from Secex.

Despite rising exports, the price of pork paid to producers in the domestic market fell in March, maintaining this downward cycle until early April (graph 2 and table 3), when it stabilized and, more recently, has shown signs of recovery (graph 3 and table 3). There is no indication of a significant increase in pork slaughter compared to last year, which reinforces the trend of continued price recovery in the coming months.

Chart 2 – Live pig indicator – Cepea/Esalq (R$/kg) in MG, PR, RS, SC and SP, monthly, in the last 6 months, November/24 until 04/15/2025 (price indicated in the chart as average of November/24, when it reached maximum nominal price in some markets). Source: Cepea

Chart 3 – Live Pig Indicator – Cepea/Esalq (R$/kg) in MG, PR, RS, SC and SP, daily, in the last 30 business days, until 04/15/2025. Source: Cepea

Table 3 – Weekly price of the Belo Horizonte Pork Exchange (BSEMG) since the second half of 2024 (R$/kg live), until the meeting of 04/16/2025. Highlighted in blue are some relevant upward movements and in yellow are recent downward movements. Prepared by Iuri Pinheiro Machado with data from BSEMG

Corn prices have stopped rising, bran remains stable and the exchange rate between pork and inputs is still favorable

The USDA maintained its forecast of 126 million tons for Brazil's corn harvest and pointed to a significant change in the planting intentions of US farmers, reducing the soybean area by 7% and increasing the corn area by the same proportion. This likely increase in corn area could represent production of up to 25 million tons more of the cereal, improving global supply in the second half of 2025 and relieving upward pressure on corn prices. Incidentally, planting of the US crop has already begun.

The latest harvest survey by Conab showed an increase of 2 million tons of corn compared to the previous month, totaling almost 125 million tons in the sum of the three harvests. It is worth remembering that the second harvest, still under development and representing almost 80% of the 2024/25 harvest, is still at relative risk in some regions, if the rains in the coming weeks and in May are not sufficient. Corn prices, which had been rising since the turn of the year, stabilized and, more recently, began to decline (graphs 4 and 5).

Chart 4 – Average monthly price of corn (R$/SC 60kg) in Campinas-SP, in the last 6 months, until 04/15/2025. Source: Cepea

Chart 5 – Average daily price of corn (R$/SC 60kg) in Campinas-SP, in the last 30 business days, until 04/15/2025. Source: Cepea

Although lower than in the second half of 2024, the exchange rate between pork and the main inputs (corn and soybean meal) remains advantageous (graph 6), which determines positive margins in the activity in all regions of Brazil (table 4).

Chart 6 – Pig exchange rate: corn + soybean meal mix (R$/kg) in São Paulo, from April/23 to April/25 (until 04/15/25). Mix composition: for each kilogram of MIX there are 740g of corn and 260g of soybean meal. Ideal exchange rate, above 5.00 Prepared by Iuri P. Machado with data from Cepea – prices state of São Paulo

Table 4 – Total costs (full cycle), sales price and estimated profit/loss in the three southern states and Goiás (R$/kg live pig sold) in January, February and March 2024 and 2025, and the annual average for 2023 and 2024. Prepared by Iuri P. Machado with data: Embrapa (costs), Cepea (pork price)

Amid uncertainties over Trump’s “tariff hike,” Brazilian pig farming assesses opportunities and threats

It is still too early to measure the impact of the “Trump tariff hike,” but it is likely that demand for Brazilian meat will increase, not only from China, but from all markets to which the United States exports. This brings good prospects in terms of pricing for Brazilian pig farmers, but, on the other hand, the pressure on greater grain exports (mainly soybeans) and the increase in domestic consumption of agricultural inputs puts upward pressure on production costs.

China, to date, has maintained retaliatory tariffs of over 100% against the United States. Charts 7, 8 and 9 below show the main export destinations of the three meats from the United States, with emphasis on China, which accounts for 15.1%, 12.9% and 8.9% of US exports of beef, pork and chicken, respectively.

Chart 7 – U.S. beef exports, in US$, and by destination from 2015 to 2024. Source: USDA

Chart 8. U.S. pork exports, in US$, and by destination from 2015 to 2024. Source: USDA

Chart 9 – US chicken meat exports, in US$, and by destination from 2015 to 2024. Source: USDA

In the US grain export market, the situation of dependence on China is quite different. While the Asian giant accounts for only 2.35% of US corn shipments (graph 10), China's share in soybeans is 52.2% (graph 11).

Chart 10 – U.S. corn exports, in US$, and by destination from 2015 to 2024. Source: USDA

Chart 11 – US SOYBEAN exports, in US$, and by destination from 2015 to 2024. Source: USDA

Although Brazil already has a significant share of Chinese soybean imports, there could be additional market gains if Chinese retaliatory tariffs are maintained.

ABCS president Marcelo Lopes explains that even with Brazilian pork exports booming, the domestic market has been slowing down and even falling. “But there is a tendency and expectation that prices paid to producers will rise again in the coming weeks and enter the second half of the year firm and on the rise. Attention now turns to the development of the second corn harvest in Brazil and the consequences of the tariff war declared by the United States with the rest of the world. Initially, the tendency is for more space to open up for Brazil to export meat and grains. What could change this situation is the eventual establishment of an agreement between the United States and China, something that is unlikely at this time,” he analyzes.