China's soybean imports fall to lowest level since 2012 amid rising tensions with the United States

In March, China imported 3.5 million tons of soybeans from different origins, according to data from the Chinese Customs Authority (GACC). The volume represents a decrease of 40% compared to February and 37% compared to March 2024, in addition to being the lowest recorded for the month since 2012.

This decline in purchases is largely the result of heightened tensions between the United States and China over the past month and reinforced in the first half of April, when China officially imposed tariffs of 125% on all goods originating in the United States in retaliation for the increasing rates announced by the North American country.

The United States is the second largest source of soybeans imported by China. In 2024, 21% of the volume of soybeans purchased by the Asian country was produced by the United States, equivalent to 22.1 million tons. Therefore, uncertainties regarding commodity trade flows should hinder the acquisition of new batches.

Since 2017, Brazil has been the main source of Chinese soybean purchases, accounting for 71% of the total volume purchased in 2024. In this sense, China is the main destination for Brazilian soybean sales, receiving 73% of Brazilian shipments throughout 2024. As the largest global supplier of the product, with a record harvest estimated by Datagro at 169.1 million tons in 2024/25 and export potential close to 107 million tons, Chinese purchases of Brazilian soybeans are expected to be significantly high in April and May, especially due to the seasonality of the agricultural calendar.

Planting of the 2025/26 soybean crop in the United States has not yet begun, which naturally limits the availability of the product in the country during this period. In contrast, the 2024/25 Brazilian harvest is in full swing, increasing the South American supply on the international market.

Brazilian shipments during the period reinforce the analysis. In March, Brazil exported 11.1 million tons of soybeans to China, equivalent to 76% of the total exported in the month (14.7 million tons). This is the largest volume sent to the Asian country in March in the historical series and the second largest monthly volume overall, surpassed only by the data from April 2021.

Datagro Grãos estimates that, in April, China should acquire eight million tons of soybeans, most of which will originate from Brazil, considering the increase in supply in the country, given the completion of the record harvest, the historic commercial relationship between Brazil and China and the evolution of the trade conflict between the United States and China.