EN 
PT_BR 
By Roberto Samora
SAO PAULO (Reuters) - Brazil will harvest 0.5% fewer soybeans in 2025 than expected last month, but the crop will still be a record at 170.9 million tonnes, the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove) estimated on Wednesday in its monthly review.
This represents a growth of 16.5 million tons compared to the previous cycle, mainly with the recovery of productivity in most regions after a failed harvest last year.
Abiove, in turn, raised its estimate for Brazil's 2024 harvest by 0.6% to 154.39 million tons, after a consolidation of last year's figures, marked by a record in soybean meal exports.
Despite a reassessment in soybean processing in 2024, there was still more soybean leftover than expected, which resulted in an increase of 1 million tons in initial stocks of the grain in 2025, to 4.14 million tons.
Final stocks for 2025 were also increased by 1.6% compared to last month's survey, to 9.1 million tons, after Abiove maintained estimates for Brazil's soybean exports and processing at record levels, of 106.1 million and 57.5 million tons, respectively.
BIODIESEL FACTOR
Estimates for production, domestic consumption and exports of soybean meal were also unchanged compared to last month.
But Abiove raised its soybean oil export forecast by 27.3% compared to the February estimate, to 1.4 million tons, after the Brazilian government decided to maintain the biodiesel blend in diesel at 14%.
The expectation was for an increase in the blend to 15% from March, something that did not happen with the government citing inflationary concerns related to food prices – soybean oil is the main raw material for biodiesel, accounting for around 74% of the total in 2024.
Mines and Energy Minister Alexandre Silveira said when making the announcement in February that the mix will be maintained at 14% until the government sees results in food prices, an issue that has affected President Lula's popularity.
If the export forecast was raised, Abiove cut the estimate for soybean oil consumption in Brazil in 2025 by 3.8%, to 10.1 million tons.
In 2024, according to data from the regulatory agency ANP, more than 7 billion liters of soybean oil were destined for the production of biodiesel.
(By Roberto Samora)
