Grain production in the 2024/25 harvest should reach 328.3 million tons

With the completion of the planting of the 1st harvest crops and the intensification of the harvesting work for these products, the current estimate for grain production in the 2024/25 harvest was updated and stands at 328.3 million tons, an increase of 10.3% compared to the volume obtained in the previous cycle, which represents an increase of 30.6 million tons to be harvested.

The result reflects both an increase in the planted area, estimated at 81.6 million hectares, and a recovery in the average productivity of crops, projected at 4,023 kilos per hectare. If the outlook is confirmed at the end of the cycle, this will be a new record for production in the historical series of the National Supply Company (Conab). The information is in the 6th Survey of the 2024/25 Grain Harvest, released by the state-owned company this Thursday (13).

The main product cultivated in the 1st harvest, soybeans, have an estimated production of 167.4 million tons, 13.3% higher than the previous harvest. After a slower start to the harvest due to planting delays and excessive rainfall in January, the reduction in rainfall in February led to a significant increase in the harvested area. This week, the harvest index stands at 60.9% of the area, higher than that recorded in the same period in the previous season as well as the average of the last 5 years, as indicated by the Harvest Progress published by the Company. The yields obtained so far have positively exceeded initial expectations in important producing states, such as Mato Grosso, Goiás and Minas Gerais. On the other hand, in Rio Grande do Sul and Mato Grosso do Sul, the irregularity and lack of rainfall has already affected the productive potential of the crop in almost the entire state.

The soybean harvest dictates the pace of progress for the planting of the 2nd corn crop, which has already reached 83.1% of the expected area. The rate is below that recorded in the last cycle in a similar period, but higher than the average of the last 5 years. Conab expects the area of the 2nd corn crop to grow by 1.9%, reaching approximately 16.75 million hectares. The weather conditions so far are favorable and a recovery in average crop productivity is estimated at 5,703 kilos per hectare. As a result, production in the 2nd corn crop alone is projected at 95.5 million tons, a positive variation of 5.8% compared to 2023/24. This good performance influences the expected estimate for total corn production of 122.8 million tons, an increase of 6.1%.

For rice, there was also an increase in the planted area of 6.5%, reaching 1.7 million hectares. The good weather conditions have favoring crops, allowing a recovery of 7.3% in average crop productivity, estimated at 7,063 kilos per hectare. If current conditions are maintained, the production estimate in this survey increases to 12.1 million tons. Harvest rates are higher than the same period of the last harvest in almost all major producing states, with only Tocantins having a harvest rate slightly below the previous cycle.

Another important product for Brazilians, beans are expected to register a slight increase in total production of 1.5% in the 2024/25 harvest, estimated at 3.29 million tons. The result is mainly influenced by the expectation of a slight improvement in the average productivity of crops, since the area allocated to the legume remains practically stable.

In the case of cotton, the expectation is that the increase in the planted area, estimated at around 2 million hectares, will reflect an increase in production. The expectation is for a good average productivity in the crops, which could be the third highest ever recorded in the historical series, behind only the last two cycles. In this scenario, the estimate is that 3.82 million tons of cotton will be harvested, setting a new record for the country.

Market

The arrival of the rice harvest on the market continues the downward trend in prices paid to producers. In addition, the increase in production estimated by the Company guarantees domestic supply and enables a recovery in carryover stocks of the product even with the expectation of an increase in grain exports. It is estimated that sales of Brazilian rice to the foreign market will reach 2 million tons, and that carryover stocks at the end of the 2024/25 harvest will show a recovery, with an estimated volume of 1.4 million tons at the end of February 2026.

Complete information on the 6th Grain Harvest Survey 2024/25, with market conditions for the products, can be found in the bulletin published in Conab Portal.