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SAO PAULO (Reuters) - Brazil's 2024/25 soybean crop was estimated at a record 171.6 million tonnes, but below a projection a month earlier due to cuts in estimates for the states of Rio Grande do Sul and Mato Grosso do Sul, which suffered from drought and heat, according to an assessment by consultancy Céleres released on Wednesday.
“The lower rainfall, combined with high temperatures in these states, led to a worsening of crop conditions. The state that suffered the most from this climate situation was Rio Grande do Sul… with a loss of 1.3 MMt, followed by Mato Grosso do Sul with 0.9 MMt and Santa Catarina with 0.2 MMt…”, stated Céleres, in a note.
Even so, the harvest in Brazil is expected to grow 11.1% compared to 2023/24, with an average national productivity of 61.6 bags/hectare, 9% higher compared to the previous cycle.
According to Céleres, the changes should not have a profound impact on the supply and demand situation.
“Stock generation should still be very high and the price trend should remain neutral,” he said.
In the base scenario, Céleres estimates that Brazil could have record exports of 107 million tons, compared to 98.8 million in the previous year, with a crush in the country of 56.5 million tons in 2025, compared to 54 million in 2024.
Ending stocks in 2024/25 would grow to over 5 million tonnes, versus 1.1 million in the last cycle.
Last Monday, consultancy StoneX also reduced its estimate for soybean production in the 2024/25 harvest to 168.3 million tons, a drop of 1.5% compared to the number released last month, citing the effects of the drought in Rio Grande do Sul.
(By Roberto Samora)
