EN 
PT_BR The tilapia market in Brazil faced a challenging year in 2025. In the first half of the year, prices paid to producers fell due to a greater supply of fish with high biomass.
Survey of Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea), from Esalq/USP, points out that, between January and June, the average value was R$ 7.92 per kilo, a real decrease of 20.6% compared to the same period in 2024. During this period, the average weight of fish sold increased from 0.921 kilos to 1.023 kilos, an increase of 11.1%. This scenario was influenced by the strong production of fingerlings in the previous cycle, which increased supply at a time of weakened demand.
Photos: Alexandre Marchetti/Itaipu Binacional
In the second half of the year, prices reacted, with more significant increases in October and November. From July to November, the average trading price reached R$ 8.41 per kilogram, 2% above that recorded in the same period of 2024 and 6.1% higher than in the first half of this year. The recovery was attributed to a more restricted supply, reflecting a more subdued stocking rate at the beginning of 2025 and the scarcity of fingerlings for fattening during the prolonged cold period, in addition to an improvement in demand.
Even with the recovery at the end of the year, the overall average for 2025 remained below that of the previous year. In the partial period from January to November, the average value was R$ 8.14 per kilogram, 11.4% lower than that recorded in the same period of 2024.
The price of tilapia fillets also fell. Up to November, the average drop was 18.9% compared to the same period last year, indicating that the industry adjusted prices to stimulate consumption.
In foreign trade, data from Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex) shows that, from January to November, Brazilian exports of tilapia and derived products totaled 14,200 tons, a volume 1% lower than the 14,300 tons shipped in the same period of 2024. The imposition of additional tariffs by the United States, the main destination for Brazilian tilapia, affected shipments, especially in August and September. At the same time, the opening of the national market to tilapia from Vietnam generated concern in the sector.
According to data from the Brazilian Fish Farming Yearbook Peixe BR 2026, the expectation for 2026 is for a regular supply in the first semester, driven by the strong pace of fingerling sales in recent months. The projection is for growth of around 3%, a percentage lower than the growth of over 12% recorded in 2024.
The sector is also monitoring potential changes in US tariffs and import trends, factors that could influence domestic availability, prices, and investment decisions over the next year.
