Mato Grosso is expected to increase ethanol production by 16% in the 2026/27 harvest.

Mato Grosso is expected to consolidate its position among the main biofuel hubs in the country in the 2026/27 harvest. A survey by Bioind-MT, prepared by the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea), projects a growth of 16.08% in the total ethanol production in the state, which should reach 8.44 million cubic meters in the next cycle.

“Our estimate shows that the advance will be sustained mainly by the expansion of corn ethanol, a segment in which Mato Grosso already accounts for 621 TBP of the national cereal ethanol production,” explains Silvio Rangel, president of Bioind-MT and the Federation of Industries of Mato Grosso (Fiemt). “In addition to strengthening the country's energy security and economy, the sector is positioned as strategic for the future decarbonization of transport, with growing potential in the supply of renewable fuels for aviation and maritime navigation.” 

Before projecting the next cycle, the survey indicates that the 2025/26 harvest should already end with an 8.52% growth in state ethanol production, reaching 7.27 million m³, while national production should remain practically stable, with an increase of 0.22%. This performance keeps Mato Grosso in second position in the Brazilian ranking of ethanol production, behind only São Paulo.  

In the current harvest, corn ethanol production is expected to reach 6.18 million m³, an increase of 9.891 TP4T compared to the previous cycle. Sugarcane ethanol production is projected to reach 1.09 million m³, a growth of 1.371 TP4T.

Growth of the corn and sugarcane ethanol supply chain in the 2025/26 harvest. 

For 2026/27, the expectation is for even greater acceleration in the corn segment. Production is expected to increase by 18.67%, reaching 7.33 million m³, while sugarcane ethanol is expected to grow by 1.42%, reaching 1.11 million m³.  

“The survey shows that Mato Grosso continues to expand its strategic relevance to the Brazilian energy matrix. The growth of corn ethanol demonstrates the capacity for integration between agricultural production, industry, and renewable energy generation,” says Rangel. 

The study also highlights the expansion of corn milling destined for ethanol production. In the 2025/26 harvest, the processed volume is expected to reach 13.81 million tons, an increase of 10.45%. For 2026/27, the projection is for growth of 18.52%, reaching 16.36 million tons, driven by the entry of two new industrial plants in the state.  

Generation of Co-products 

In addition to fuel production, the corn ethanol industrial chain continues to expand the generation of co-products. Production of DDG (Dried Distillers Grains) and DDGS (Dried Distillers Grains with Solubles) is expected to grow by 16.141 TP4T in 2026/27, reaching 3.41 million tons, while corn oil is expected to advance by 12.91 TP4T, reaching 338,900 tons.  

In the sugar and ethanol sector, sugarcane crushing is expected to remain stable in the next cycle, with a forecast of 18.61 million tons, an increase of 0.39%. Sugar production, however, is expected to register a slight decrease of 1.42%, to 579,700 tons.  

Long-term projections from the survey indicate continued expansion of the biofuel industry in the state. According to Imea, Mato Grosso could produce 15.02 million m³ of ethanol by 2033/34, more than double the volume estimated for the current harvest.  

“The bioenergy sector in Mato Grosso has been expanding its participation not only in the production of renewable fuels, but also in the generation of co-products for animal nutrition, vegetable oil, bioenergy and decarbonization credits, consolidating an industrial chain of great economic relevance for the state,” says Cleiton Gauer, superintendent of IMEA. 

The survey also highlights the sector's environmental contribution. According to the study, Decarbonization Credits (CBIOs) have already represented mitigation equivalent to 189.64 million tons of CO₂ since the beginning of the program, with 40.06 million tons in 2025 alone. 

Combined with ethanol production and the generation of co-products, the bioenergy chain in Mato Grosso is expanding its economic and social relevance, generating more than 12,000 direct jobs and generating over R$2.5 billion in ICMS (Value Added Tax) revenue for the state.  

Combined with ethanol production and the generation of co-products, the bioenergy chain in Mato Grosso is expanding its economic and social relevance, generating more than 12,000 direct jobs and generating over R$2.5 billion in ICMS (Value Added Tax) revenue for the state.