Reduced water supply threatens rice production in Asia.

The production of rice Thailand's crop is expected to decline in the 2026/27 season, amid reduced water availability and advancing El Niño-related conditions. The expectation is for a reduction primarily in the crop cultivated outside the peak season, while the area under regular harvest is expected to remain stable.

According to the Foreign Agricultural Service of the United States Department of Agriculture, Thai production is projected at 20.3 million tons, a decrease of 2% compared to the 2025/26 cycle. This volume represents approximately 400,000 tons less year-on-year.

The decline is expected to be concentrated in the off-season crop. The area harvested during this period is estimated at 1.93 million hectares, down from 2.07 million hectares in the previous cycle. The area for the main crop is expected to be around 8.9 million hectares.

The water situation is also putting pressure on the outlook. On August 15, the four large Chao Phraya reservoirs were at 55% of total capacity, but only 39% of that volume was usable, about 9% below the level recorded a year earlier. The Thai Meteorological Department predicts below-average rainfall with the formation of an El Niño pattern.

Despite lower production, exports are expected to remain stable at 7.3 million tons, the lowest volume since 2021. The FAS attributes this performance to the appreciation of the Thai baht and competition with India and Vietnam.

Ending stocks are expected to rise to 4.6 million tons, the highest level in five years. Part of this volume should be absorbed by the expanded government program to purchase 3 million tons of paddy rice. Thailand remains among the top ten producers and among the top five exporters worldwide.