EN 
PT_BR 
The appreciation of rice The price of unhulled in the U.S. futures market is noteworthy because it's occurring during the U.S. harvest season, a period typically marked by increased supply. According to Sergio Cardoso, an analyst in the supply chain... rice According to the Canal Pampa Gaúcho, prices in Chicago reached US$$ 17.25 per cwt, accumulating a gain of 58.33% in the last 12 months.
The move comes amid prospects of lower production in the United States. According to USDA projections presented by the analyst, the long-grain rice crop is expected to reach approximately 4.68 million tons, the lowest volume since 1987/88.
Another indicator observed is the New Orleans market, known as NOLA, which shows references between US$ 395 and US$ 405 per ton FOB of paddy rice. On the Chicago exchange, futures contracts for 2027 are approaching US$ 18 per cwt, although more distant maturities show low liquidity.
For Mercosur countries, this scenario could represent commercial opportunities. Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay could expand their presence in importing markets, especially in Central America, should the reduced availability from the United States materialize.
However, the 2026/27 harvest begins surrounded by uncertainties related to planted area, weather patterns, productivity, and production costs. Cardoso also points out that Chicago, NOLA, and the Brazilian physical market have different dynamics.
The sustainability of these price increases will depend on the evolution of exports, stocks, freight costs, and actual transactions. The main question is whether Chicago is simply reacting to the reduced US harvest or anticipating a tighter international long-term rice market in 2027.
