EN 
PT_BR The positive development of crops in the United States indicates that the country is on track to harvest a full harvest, estimated at around 400 million tons of corn, according to a report by Itaú BBA Agro. This scenario strengthens American competitiveness in the international market and increases the challenges for Brazilian shipments, which remain slow amid trade uncertainty and exchange rate volatility.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release a new update to its crop projections on the 12th, with the possibility of an upward revision in productivity. Furthermore, the U.S. government announced new trade agreements with Japan and the European Union, which could translate into increased external demand, helping to absorb part of the record supply. Even so, strong pressure on prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) is expected.
In the international market, Brazil faces additional challenges: in addition to the robust US harvest, Argentina reduced retenciones (export taxes) from 12% to 9.3%, and Ukraine is also projecting a good harvest. So far, the corn shipping lineup for August totals 4 million tons, and year-to-date, 11 million tons have already been committed. To reach the target of 42 million tons in the 2025/26 trade cycle (February to January), it will be necessary to accelerate the pace of shipments in the coming months.
In the field, sales remain stagnant. Brazilian producers are adopting a more measured sales strategy, resulting in full silos and warehouses, as well as open-air grain storage in states like Mato Grosso. The harvest is plentiful, but there's still plenty of corn available for sale. This situation, coupled with the entry of American production into the market, tends to put additional pressure on prices, reinforcing the need for risk management on the part of producers.
