Exports and controlled production support live pig prices in February

The good flow of exports combined with controlled production in February supported the recovery of live pig prices throughout the month. Even with prices falling again in March, the good historical price level and the decline in soybean meal, moderating the impact of the increase in corn in feed, continue to support a good result for the activity.

Live pig prices reacted in February, after starting the year with lower prices compared to December 2024. Live animals in the state of São Paulo closed February with an average of R$8.74/kg, 10% above the previous month and 31.5% over February 2024. However, the first half of March saw prices settle again compared to the end of February, but with the monthly average still in line with last month.

Given the recovery in animal prices, the pig farming spread rose again, to 36% in February, equivalent to R$ 270/finished head, against 25% in January.

On the cost side, although corn prices rose in February in Minas Gerais and Paraná, in Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul the cereal fell by 1%, which, together with the decline in soybean meal, moderated the aggregate impact on costs, which rose by 0.3% on average, much less than the 8.8% increase in live animals. On the supply side, preliminary pig slaughters, up to February, continue to indicate a controlled pace of production, similar to the previous year.

External demand remained solid, with 101,000 tons of fresh meat shipped in February, representing growth of 19.9% over February 2024 and 12.4% in the first two months of the year. In addition, the average price of meat rose again (2.2%), after having fallen 3.0% in the previous month. However, the exchange rate appreciation of 4.4% offset this price evolution and ended up reducing the export spread slightly, from 83% to 78%, still above the historical average (70%).